So, there I was, sneaking a quick email check during a break from the daily grind, when an email blast from KR Training landed in my inbox, exclusive to Defensive Pistol Skills Program coin holders. With a few minutes left, I opened it to see what the fuss was about. Unlike typical marketing spam, these emails are rare gems, offering first-dibs invites to special events or other perks for coin holders. This one was no exception. One detail grabbed my attention: plenty of spots open for an upcoming guest instructor’s flagship two-day course, which is usually in sky-high demand. That struck me as odd, especially since I’d heard similar whispers about other training opportunities with top-tier instructors. It got me wondering—what’s going on? After some armchair market analysis, it hit me: we’re in a buyer’s market for firearms, ammunition, and firearms training.

Can You Believe It? A Buyer’s Market!

At first, I couldn’t wrap my head around it. Buyer’s markets are like gold mines—full of investment opportunities that get my pulse racing. I’m not one to call myself lucky, and while this isn’t like hitting the jackpot with a capital J, I was skeptical. But the evidence from reliable sources speaks for itself, and it aligns with what I’m seeing. Ammo prices are dropping, and in-stock availability is up. Firearms? Same deal. Those hot-ticket training classes aren’t selling out like they used to—not even close to the frenzy of a couple of years ago.

I didn’t see this coming. In fact, it’s the polar opposite of the predictions I made last summer, based on industry insider buzz. Folks, this is wild! Not convinced? Let me break it down.

Blasters and Freedom Seeds: The Supply and Demand Dance

The firearms and ammo situation is straightforward—classic supply and demand. The gun industry is no stranger to these swings. Demand spikes during potential or enacted legislative bans, shifts in political control, or surges in violent crime. Five years ago, during COVID, we hit a perfect storm: a trifecta of factors drove unprecedented demand for firearms and ammo. I haven’t been in the game long enough to say for sure, but I’d bet the farm that 2020’s conditions were unmatched. Reports flooded in about record-breaking first-time buyers, mostly driven by self-defense concerns. NICS (National Instant Criminal Background Check System) data backs this up, with 2020 hitting a record breaking peak of 39.7 million background checks, reflecting a surge in firearm purchases and concealed carry permits (though the system covers other transactions too). Gun counters and ammo shelves? Bare. What little was available was marked up to the moon.

Demand stayed sky-high through 2021 and into 2022, leaving supply chains gasping. Everyone—consumers, retailers, distributors—scrambled to stockpile inventory. But by late 2022, demand started to taper, continuing through 2024, where NICS transactions are estimated to dip slightly below 2019 levels. People are still buying, just not in panic mode. Retailers, and maybe distributors, are now sitting on overstocked shelves, leading to an abundance of competitively priced guns and ammo.

Don’t buy it? Check your favorite retailer’s clearance section. You’ll likely spot deals like a 50-cal Barrett M107A1, which would’ve fetched over $12K two years ago, now going for under $9K. Retailers are clearly eager to move inventory—fast.

If you’ve been stocking your stash like I have, you probably don’t need to go all-in on guns and ammo right now. Plus, with other markets signaling tighter wallets, most folks are being choosy with discretionary spending. That’s fine. I’m not saying raid the shelves at your local sporting goods store—especially if it’d strain your finances. All I’m pointing out is that we’re seeing purchasing opportunities not seen in half a decade.

Training: More Bang for the Buck

This whole revelation started with that KR Training email, which got me thinking about market conditions, especially since local buzz suggests training classes aren’t filling like they used to. But the data I dug up tells a different story: the training market seems stable overall. So, what I’m hearing locally might not be widespread. Still, it’s worth diving into.

I have a few theories about the disconnect. The most plausible? The data I found lumps together private citizen armed defense training, competitive shooting sports, and public sector military and law enforcement training. It’s likely that public sector demand—bolstered by the fading “defund the police” narrative—is propping up the market as a whole. But that’s just my speculation, and it’s small potatoes compared to the opportunities at hand.

One standout opportunity is discounted training—something I don’t recall seeing before. It’s not widespread, but some providers are slashing tuition to fill seats and get guns on the range. For those not feeling pinched financially, this is huge. Even for the budget-conscious, it’s a chance to train with less risk. Either way, it’s a shot to learn more for less.

But the value doesn’t stop there. Even for non-discounted classes, smaller class sizes mean more instructor attention and likely more trigger time under their guidance. You might not save on tuition and could burn through more ammo, but you’re getting personalized value that elevates the experience. That’s more bang for the buck no matter how you look at it.

Plus, restocking those ammo cans won’t hit your wallet as hard as it would have last year or the year before.

Parting Thoughts: Don’t Let Readiness Slide

Economic concerns likely play a role in this decreased demand, but my instructor colleagues and I agree the biggest factor is a drop in perceived violent crime. Less defunding of police, fewer posts about large-scale unrest on social media, and news about tighter immigration policies all reduce the felt need to prepare for a violent encounter. That’s a good thing! No one with a sound mind wants to live in a world where fighting for your life—or your loved ones’—is a constant concern.

But here’s the flip side: self-defense can become deprioritized. People forget that it’s never been about the odds—it’s about the stakes. No matter how low the odds get, they’re never zero. So, I urge anyone still reading: don’t let your readiness slip. Periodically check that your gear and skills are up to the task. There’s an old saying: “The best time to plant a tree was ten years ago; the second-best time is now.” That’s the crux of it. Right now, with things relatively calm and market conditions in the buyer’s favor, is the time to invest. Markets are unpredictable, and these conditions aren’t guaranteed to last. If you have the means, don’t squander this opportunity.