Predictably, after a horrific event, like this past weekend’s attempt President Trump’s life, people get scared and folks reach out asking what guns and ammo they should get to better prepared to defend themselves and their loves ones should things continue to devolve into complete chaos with roving bands of angry mobs that are pillaging and razing everything to the ground.

First off, stop. Take a breath and sit down. I got good news and bad news. But if you are in a hurry, skip down to the ammunition section right now because a side effect from the attempt on President Trump’s life is likely to be an ammunition shortage. A couple of vendors I know are seeing a sustained increase in demand of roughly 2000% since the event. If this keeps up and I suspect it will, then prices are about to go up and availability is going to go way down. Supply and demand are like that.

Societal Collapse

Let’s start with the bad news. There is a whole lot more to being prepared for complete societal breakdown than buying a boat load of guns and ammo. Think about it. If a large roving band of miscreants is burning down your neighborhood, then all the guns and ammo you and the other members of your household can wield and send downrange isn’t going to divert the path of destruction. One isn’t going to be able to beat the numbers.

Maybe, and it’s a huge maybe, if the entire neighborhood was prepared, trained, fortified, and organized enough to mount a similar sized defense there might be a chance the path of destruction can be diverted. However, those who have that type of community wouldn’t be reading this post as they would already have the guns, ammo, and other related resources to be prepared for an ordeal of that scale or at least working towards it.

Additionally, there are folks, like Clay Martin, Joe Dolio, and Paul T Martin, who are far more well versed in preparedness than I am. It is the expertise and wisdom from folks like them that should be sought when looking to increase one’s resilience against events of that magnitude. As such, I will encourage you to do so. While I don’t have a crystal ball and I can’t predict how bad things will get or when, I suspect things will get worse before they continue to get better. Being armed is only a small part of the whole equation.

Now for the good news, I can help with the guns and ammo.

Guns

If you already have defensive firearms, then chances are resources are better spent on ammunition instead of more guns. So I’ll encourage you to skip down to the ammunition section right now. You can come back and read this section later.

Your understanding and consent are not required for someone to take your life, kill your loved ones, and destroy all that you hold dear.”

Dr. William Aprill

As far as guns go in the context of self defense, I suggest starting with a pistol. Not because they are better, but rather because they are portable. The thing about violence is that violence can happen to anyone, anywhere, anytime, without any prior notice. Having an accessible and concealed pistol on your person gives you the means to respond to a lethal threat in kind.

Of course, this means you have to make carrying it a part of your lifestyle. It would also be exceptionally prudent to learn how to use it competently. It would also be beneficial to pick one that is designed for the purpose of self defense and has a track record that validates its design.

Thankfully, I’ve written at length on this topic several times:

• Qualities of a Defensive Handgun
• So You Bought a Handgun for Personal Protection, Now What?
• The Reality of the First Handgun

A long gun is the next logical choice since they are far more effective at neutralizing threats. Having one for home defense or in case one is forced to relocate in a hurry is a good idea. Either a reliable AR or AK pattern rifle and shotgun will fit the bill.

While I haven’t written much about AKs or shotguns, I have written a fair bit on AR pattern rifles:

• A 2021 Guide to the Home Defense Firearm
• So You Bought an AR-15, Now What?

If you’re not sure where to begin after reading this far and perusing the provided links, then I suggest taking a look at this two older posts which may be helpful:

• A Beginner’s Guide to the First Firearm
• Advice for New (or Soon To Be) Armed Self Defenders

I also offer training services that can help with selection and becoming a proficient armed citizen that you may be interested in. I strongly urge those who decide to buy their first gun to seek training to learn to live with and operate those firearms safely.

Before moving on to ammo, I want to reiterate that I think starting with a pistol and adopting an armed lifestyle is the best course of action to be prepared for violence. Adding a long gun is a good second step. It’s worth considering increasing the number of pistols and long guns to match the number of able bodied members of the household who can responsibly use one if and when resources allow. However, consider other aspects of preparedness before investing everything into building an arsenal. There are a lot of other things and skills that are critical to increasing preparedness in addition to ammunition and training we will cover next.

Ammunition

I don’t want to be an alarmist. As such, I will encourage you to suppress any urge to panic buy ammunition before thinking critically about your situation and inventory. If, and only if, after thinking critically and determining that topping off your personal inventory is in your benefit and can do so without creating personal financial risk, then do what must be done and do it soon. As I already stated, based on the increased demand since the attempt on President Trump’s life and the looming election, I suspect supply and demand will create an ammunition shortage or at least drive prices up for a good while. How long and how much I can’t say with certainty, but given other current events and shortages on powder in the supply chain I think seeing something similar to what we saw in 2020 isn’t out of the question and could very well carry well into 2025.

I hope I’m wrong, but I’m reviewing my inventory right now to determine if I have enough to attend the classes and conferences I already have on the books, and maintain my current practice and competition activity levels for the next 12 months. Not because I’m planning on not making any changes to my ammunition consumption, but because that gives me flexibility to adapt to changing conditions without completely foregoing skill development and maintenance.

But I’m getting ahead of myself. Let’s take a step back and look at prioritized absolute minimums and go from there.

Priority 1 – Pistol Ammunition Minimums

My first priority is pistol ammunition. The main reason is that a pistol is the tool I will most likely depend on to save my life and the lives of those I care about since it is almost always on my person. Given shooting is a perishable skill, I’m going to want to maintain it to the best of my ability.

With that in mind, I’ve come up with some numbers that I’m comfortable with as absolute minimums for handing ammunition to keep on hand. I am by no means suggesting that these numbers are enough. After all, it is common knowledge that there is no such thing as having enough ammunition. What I mean by absolute minimum is that I’m not going to pay exorbitant prices for defensive ammunition to increase my supply unless I drop below these numbers. As I’ve mentioned already in this post, there is more to preparedness than guns and ammo.

Priority 1A – Defensive Pistol Ammunition

Having enough defensive pistol ammunition takes precedence over having enough training ammunition. If push comes to shove and I have no other option but to defend myself or my loved ones, then I want to use the most effective ammunition for a kinetic social exchange that doesn’t put uninvolved parties at risk. This requires ammunition loaded with an expanding projectile. The gold standard here is Federal HST or Speer Gold Dot assuming it complies with local jurisdictional constraints.

What’s my absolute minimum? Fifty-two rounds plus two magazines full plus one for the everyday carry pistols in the household.

The two magazines plus one are probably self explanatory. One spare magazine, one magazine loaded in the gun, and one in the chamber.

The 52 rounds allow me to rotate in one round per week to replace the one in the chamber that will be rotated out for a full year. I do this because each time a round is chambered we run the risk of damaging the primer or setting projectiles deeper into the case. Chambering a defensive round will happen at least once a day due to daily dry fire. So rotating the chambered round on a weekly basis minimizes the likelihood of the chambered round igniting properly if and when we desperately need it to do so.

Don’t forget that carried rounds are exposed to the environment on a regular basis. So even those who don’t dry fire regularly, but carry a gun everyday should rotate their carry ammunition from time to time.

I don’t expect my absolute minimum to be anyone else’s. This is only my number and my rationale behind it. You will have to figure out yours. I will encourage you to pick a minimum with some rationale that makes sense to you and your situation.

Priority 1B – Training Pistol Ammunition

I’ll say it again. Shooting is a perishable skill. While dry fire helps to maintain and sharpen that skill, at some point I want to get out to the range to verify where my skill is. This is going to require quite a bit more than 52 rounds, 2 full mags, plus one round.

The number for me in this priority is 2,600 rounds of training ammunition. That is enough for me to hit the range once a per week with a 50 round box to confirm my skill level and provide input into what needs work in daily dry fire practice. While this is a lot more than the defensive ammunition minimums, training ammo tends to be much more affordable than premium defensive ammo.

I have one caveat to this and that is that ammunition earmarked for booked classes doesn’t count towards the absolute minimum. Generally speaking, I earmark 250 rounds per 4 hours of scheduled training.

Priority 2 – Long Gun Ammunition Minimums

My long gun ammunition minimums use the exact same rationale. However, the numbers work out a little differently. This is because I practice and train with them less than I do with pistols. Additionally, magazines have different capacities and they aren’t all staged with one in the chamber.

Let’s quickly look at some of the differences.

Priority 2A & 2B – AR Pattern Rifle

From a defensive ammo perspective, my minimum is two magazines worth. The reason for this is because I don’t stage the rifle with a round in the chamber. I fully expect that statement to ruffle some feathers and generate some conversation, but I’m not going to get into my reasons for that here as this post is already plenty long. The point is that defensive ammo is only ever chambered when there is a proverbial “bump in the night” combined with enough time to go get the long gun. That translates into almost never. Since the rifle and ammo are stored in a temperature and climate controlled environment, the need to cycle defensive ammunition is virtually nonexistent even with regular dry fire practice.

My “go to” for defensive AR ammunition is Federal LE .223 Remington 62 gr Bonded SP for AR-15s or Speer Gold Dot .308 Winchester 168 gr Bonded SP for AR-10s.

In terms of training ammunition, my minimum is two magazines worth per month or 720 rounds because that’s about what I use to confirm skill levels on a monthly basis. This might also fluster some readers who think I don’t practice enough with the rifle and they would be right.

There is only so much time in a day, money in my wallet, and these are my priorities and decisions. Take them for what they are and use your rationale to figure out what your minimums are.

Priority 2C & 2D Shotguns

From a defensive ammo perspective, my minimum is a magazine tube worth, a side saddle, plus one, plus twelve. Note the plus one here is not for a chambered shell, but because I keep the Beretta 1301 in closet ready condition with a ghost loaded shell. The ghost load is the plus one. The plus twelve is because unloading the 1301 for weekly dry fire practice requires chambering the ghost loaded shell. Since dry fire occurs weekly I opt to cycle the ghost loaded shell once per month.

My “go to” for defensive shotgun ammunition is Federal LE 12-gauge 8-pellet 00-buck with FliteControl or the 9-pellet variant when the 8-pellet isn’t available. Unfortunately, both are pretty much unobtanium.

In terms of training ammunition, my minimum is a box of 25 shells per month or 300 shells.

Some readers will have noticed that I prioritized the AR pattern rifle before the shotgun. This is intentional based on my situation and the make up of my household. Just like the absolute minimums, consider your situation and rearrange the priorities as you see fit.

Priority 3 – Hunting Ammo

I haven’t talked about hunting ammo or rifles. This is primarily because the question of what guns and ammo one should get rarely comes to me outside of the self defense context. However from a preparedness perspective, having the ability to hunt makes sense.

My absolute minimum here is enough ammo to fill tags for a single deer season or two. A 20-round box of quality hunting ammo is more than enough for a season of filled tags for me in my area.

Closing Thoughts

At this point, I will urge readers to take a look once again at their overall preparedness and work towards meeting their minimums in other areas such as food, water, medical, fitness, shelter, transportation, communication, heat, cooling, power, and so on before worrying about stacking ammo deep or building an arsenal of guns. Seek counsel from preparedness professionals like the ones suggested above before jumping into the deep end. I don’t think societal collapse is imminent, but only a fool would argue that things aren’t in a decline or aren’t deteriorating. 

I know I mentioned I’m looking at my personal inventories and making sure that I have enough ammunition to maintain current activity levels for the next 12 months and that translates to a lot more ammunition than I listed as my minimums. However, I’m not going to panic buy. As I’ve suggested, I’m verifying the ammo inventories and making a list of what I want to acquire. I will also be taking a look at other aspects of preparedness to ensure we have adequate resilience against other shortages that might result from current or subsequent events.

Remember the run on toilet paper? Might not be a bad idea to forgo that 200th case of 9mm practice ammo and pick up a couple of bidets instead.

All I’m saying is it’s not a bad idea to get armed. Go ahead and pick up a gun or two if they are needed. If gun ownership is a new thing, then make the investment in training to learn how to live with and operate firearms safely (I’m happy to help with that). Figure out how much ammunition defines your minimum and acquire it. Beyond that, be smart and prudent about the next steps you take to be better prepared for subsequent events. I think things are going to get worse before they get better. Critical thinking and a cool head go a long way to making things worse for ourselves.